A Chronology of Russia from Yeltsin’s Fall Through Putin’s Rise

Analysis

Editor’s Note: As Stratfor readies to look forward in coming days at the implications for Russia — and its leader Vladimir Putin — in the downing July 17 of a Malaysian jetliner, we also invite readers to take stock with us of past forecasts of Russia’s geopolitical evolution in the context of global events. Stratfor Chairman George Friedman will examine the likelihood of Putin’s undoing in the next issue of Geopolitical Weekly, to publish July 22. Accordingly, we look back here at 1998, when we predicted the unfolding Kosovo crisis would be the undoing of late Russian President Boris Yeltsin. We share our assessment from 2000, when we assessed how newly elected President Putin was rapidly consolidating absolute power. In 2005, Stratfor reassessed Putin’s situation after his first presidential term and laid out how his leadership would begin to reverse the tide of concessions and reassert Russia’s role in line with historical cycles — including the forging of strategic relationships with countries such as Germany. In 2008, we looked at how Russia would capitalize on American weaknesses, including the fatigue of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In 2011, we foresaw the next stage, as Russia moved to solidify its sphere of influence while still able. In this forecast, we saw the events setting the stage for today’s crisis in Ukraine. Now, we foresee more historical change. We offer this chronology of forecasts in advance of our next report on Russia’s future. Continue reading

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Can Putin Survive?

By George Friedman

There is a general view that Vladimir Putin governs the Russian Federation as a dictator, that he has defeated and intimidated his opponents and that he has marshaled a powerful threat to surrounding countries. This is a reasonable view, but perhaps it should be re-evaluated in the context of recent events. Continue reading

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ZLATKO JELISAVAC: Hodaj na glavi!

freedom riders

”Tko hoda na glavi, moje dame i gospodo, tko hoda na glavi taj pod sobom ima nebo kao bezdan (Wer auf Kopf geht, hat der Himmel als Abgrund unter sich).” Pol Selan (Paul Celan) Continue reading

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Meko srce u premijera

Protest sindikata u Beogradu, 15. jul

Protest sindikata u Beogradu, 15. jul

AUDIO

Gaf nedelje: Meko srce u premijera.

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Miloševićev duh nad Putinovom glavom

Autor: Brian Whitmore (priredila: Mirjana Rakela)

Ruskog predsjednika Vladimira Putina progoni sablast Slobodana Miloševića. Kako se ukrajinska kriza zaoštrava, postalo je moderno a neki bi rekli, i gotovo poput fetiša – uspoređivati vođu Kremlja sa pokojnim srpskim diktatorom.

Nedavno su Vera Mironova i Marija Snegovaja u “Novoj Republici” podsjetile da su i Milošević i Putin osnažili nacionalizam… protiv Hrvata i Ukrajinaca, i to iz pomoć propagande u masovnim medijima, te kako su obojica potaknuli pobune nacionalnih manjina. I Milošević, nekada, a Putin danas, pod izgovorom zaštite manjina uključili su vojsku i formirali samoproglašene, polu-nezavisne tvorevine u Hrvatskoj i Ukrajini, koje su de facto bile pod kontrolom Beograda, a sada Moskve.

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Blog uživo: Svet traži odgovore o avionskoj nesreći

Ukraine -- A pro-Russian separatist looks at wreckage from the nose section of a Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 plane which was downed near the village of Rozsypne, in the Donetsk region, July 18, 2014

Ukraine — A pro-Russian separatist looks at wreckage from the nose section of a Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 plane which was downed near the village of Rozsypne, in the Donetsk region, July 18, 2014

Blog uživo: Svet traži odgovore o avionskoj nesreći.

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Kako je Sarajevo izgledalo prije 18 godina, a kako izgleda danas

FOTO: Jim Marshall

Radio Sarajevo.

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